5 Early NFL Favorites and their Chances in 2021

The year is moving on, and we are already deep into Summer. The NBA playoffs are wrapping up, MLB is in full swing, and football is just around the bend.

I tend to start thinking about how the upcoming NFL season might play out right about this time of year. It gets me checking the odds boards and cross-referencing various betting lines, like, the OVER/UNDER on season wins, the odds to win the division, and of course conference and Super Bowl odds, and then counting up how many games the teams are favored for on the early spread boards.

Let’s look at the favorites at top online casinos and their odds boards and see if the bookies have it right:

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Buffalo Bills
4. LA Rams
5. Baltimore Ravens

The team to win the AFC is most likely one of these three teams. That said, I do have the Tennessee Titans as a Darkhorse push hard into the playoffs. On the NFC side of things, we could see the LA Rams sneak in there, perhaps even the San Francisco 49ers.

Championship Odds

Although the odds vary, I’m taking the consensus number—the line for each team that occurs most on the betting boards.

• KC Chiefs +450
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650
• Buffalo Bills +1100
• LA Rams +1200
• Baltimore Ravens +1400
• SF 49ers +1400
• Green Bay Packers +1600

OK, We should note that the LA Rams are climbing up the boards. A couple of weeks ago, they tied with the Baltimore Ravens at a few sportsbooks, but behind Baltimore at most. Now they can be found as short as +985 at sites like Bookmaker.

As far as the division odds are concerned. The Green Bay Packers are far and above the top favorites to win the NFC North. That said, the oddsmakers know that even if Aaron Rodgers plays, GB top brass still didn’t get him the weapons he needs to win it all.

The Ravens have the Browns directly behind them on the odds to win the AFC North. Some books have the odds as close as +130 for the Ravens and +140 for the Browns. But again, the Browns are way back on the Super Bowl odds boards because the ladies and gents in Vegas don’t believe the Browns have what it takes to push through the playoff pack.

Kansas City and Tampa Bay are both significant favorites to win their respective divisions. The Cheifs can be found as juicy as -325, while TB has as much chalk as -230. Over in Bills’ land, Buffalo is around -165 to win the AFC East, with New England listed as the closest contender. Although I can’t wholeheartedly disagree and discount ‘The Hoodie’, I believe that Miami is a more significant threat in the East than the Pats.

The Rams and Niners are sitting even Steven for their shot at taking the NFC West. Bookmaker has them both at +150, while Bodog has them both at +195. Another interesting fact—similar to the Browns—is the Seahawks are listed close behind at +200. So, we can’t count them out of the playoff hunt. I think this may be the toughest division in the league in 2021.

Path to the Championship

But the brutality of a team’s schedule also factors into their postseason performance. I have to admit that of all the teams with a legitimate shot at winning, the Tampa Bay Bucs have the clearest path.

The 49ers actually have the most manageable schedule when you look at it from the viewpoint of how many games their opponents are expected to win in 2021. The Browns have the 3rd easiest, and the Bucs the 5th easiest. But, The Niners are contending with both the Seahawks and the Rams in their division, which could result in a playoff miss. The Chiefs and Rams are just on the wrong side of a demanding schedule, but still, the middle of the road and the Buffalo Bills have it reasonably easy, at around 9th lightest.

Conclusion

We have a tough season coming up, and the wildcard race is going to be crazy. We could see a shootout between the Steelers, Browns, and Ravens; a race between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennesee Titans; and a battle in the NFC West between the Rams and Niners and Seahawks. These three divisions are entirely up for grabs. That said, I do believe we’ll see the Bucs and the Cheifs in their respective conference championship games. But will they both make it back to the Super Bowl?

That remains to be seen.

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